Sean Murphy - Betting Expert

My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Friday.

If you're looking for offensive fireworks on Friday night you might want to look elsewhere. The White Sox have been putrid on the road where they rank 29th in the majors in OPS. They'll face a tough challenge on Friday as St. Louis hands the ball to Sonny Gray and his sparkling 1.47 FIP and 0.94 WHIP. Gray has quite simply been one of the best starters in baseball in the early going this season and I'm confident he can keep it going against a Chicago team that ranks 29th in baseball in OPS vs. right-handed pitching as well. Current White Sox hitters are 25-for-112 off of Gray with just six extra-base hits. Brad Keller will get his first start for Chicago after coming over from Kansas City. While I'm certainly not expecting big things from Keller in the long-term picture, he is a ground ball pitcher that can navigate a Cardinals order that ranks 23rd in the majors in home OPS this season. Keller has held current Cardinals hitters to just seven hits in 31 at-bats including only two extra-base knocks. The two bullpens are polar opposites in this matchup with White Sox relievers struggling mightily and Cards relievers among the best in baseball. The good news here is the Cards should have one less half-inning to see whoever it is the White Sox elect to trot out of the 'pen with St. Louis projected to win comfortably. Take the under (8*).

Friday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

Neither of these teams have been in top form at the plate with the Padres ranking 24th in the majors in OPS over the last seven days and the Diamondbacks checking in just ahead of them in 20th. Only four teams have been worse than Arizona in terms of OPS against right-handed pitching and it will be facing a pretty good one in Padres starter Dylan Cease on Friday. Note that current D'Backs hitters are a combined 7-for-33 off of Cease with just one extra-base hit. Cease has posted a 2.80 FIP and 0.87 WHIP in six starts this season - clearly adjusting well to the move to the National League. Slade Cecconi will counter for Arizona. Only five current Padres hitters have seen the right-hander and they've combined to collect just one hit in six at-bats. Cecconi has made two starts this season logging a 2.89 FIP and 0.50 WHIP (small sample size I know). I came away encouraged by his last start as he struck out a career-high eight hitters over six innings against the Mariners. The potential has always been there for Cecconi to rack up the K's but he hasn't been able to put it together. Neither bullpen has been lights out this season but both should benefit from the day off yesterday. Note that the D'Backs have been one of the better 'under' bets in baseball so far this season with a 13-18-1 o/u mark. Take the under.

Friday NBA Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Orlando at 7 pm et on Friday.

Game 5 of this series cruised 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold as the scene shifts back to Orlando for Game 6 on Friday. The pace wasn't necessarily there for a relatively high-scoring contest on Tuesday. In fact, the Magic got off only 78 field goal attempts - the third time in this series they've been held to 80 or less. On the flip side, Orlando has held 12 straight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and six straight to 38 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 27-17 in the Cavaliers last 44 games as a road underdog of six points or less including a 9-6 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also a long-term 67-49 with Cleveland coming off an 'over' result including a 22-20 mark this season. Orlando has seen the 'under' go 17-11 as a home favorite this season. The 'under' is also 45-37 in the Magic's last 82 contests when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including a 17-10 record in that situation this season. Take the under.

My selection is on Vegas over Dallas at 10 pm et on Friday.

The Stars have impressively rallied from a 2-0 series deficit to push the Golden Knights to the brink of elimination thanks to three straight wins. Keep in mind, every game in this series has been close. I don't think Vegas will fold the tent as it returns home with an eye on forcing a seventh and deciding game in this series. Note that the Knights are 25-13 (+7.9 net games) all-time when coming off three or more consecutive losses including 12-6 (+5.2 net games) over the last three seasons and 5-2 (+1.8 net games) this season. Meanwhile, the Stars are just 20-21 (-8.9 net games) in their last 41 contests following three or more consecutive victories including a 9-8 (-3.3 net games) record in that spot this season. When seeking revenge for three straight losses against an opponent, the Knights have gone 5-1 (+5.0 net games) over the last three seasons and 16-9 (+6.0 net games) in franchise history. Take Vegas (8*).

My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Cleveland at 7 pm et on Friday.

A 104-103 loss in Game 5 of this series in Cleveland should only boost Orlando's confidence as it returns home looking to force a seventh and deciding game in this series. Of course, the home team has dominated this series so far going a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. I say the Magic should have received a confidence boost following a one-point loss in Game 5 as that was progress after they were defeated by 14 and 10 points in the first two games in Cleveland. Orlando has now held six straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back 13 games to find the last time it allowed an opponent to get off more than 88 field goal attempts. Note that the Cavaliers are just 16-27 ATS in their last 43 games as a road underdog of six points or less including a 6-9 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also just 13-17 ATS in their last 30 contests following three straight ATS defeats, as is the case here, including a 4-5 ATS record this season. On the flip side, the Magic are 26-14 ATS in their last 40 games following three straight ATS victories including an 11-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Orlando checks in 30-19 ATS in its last 49 contests as a home favorite including 21-7 ATS this season. Take Orlando (8*).